Bye-bye base load power plants?
A new paper from the “Energy Systems of the Future” (ESYS) initiative concludes that a secure energy supply can be achieved in the future without relying on base-load power plants.
Experts from the joint science academy initiative—comprising acatech, Leopoldina, and the German Academies’ Union—examined whether base-load power plants will remain essential in a future energy system dominated by solar and wind energy. Through modeling, the ESYS scientists analyzed the potential role of low-CO₂ base-load power plants in the energy systems of the future. Their conclusion: Base-load power plants are not strictly necessary for a secure power supply, but they could still play a role if they prove economically competitive.
Base load power plants as an optional component
According to the scientists, the climate-friendly and reliable power supply of the future describes a combination of solar and wind energy systems with storage, variable hydrogen systems, flexible electricity use and the use of so-called residual load power plants. The latter are power plants that only run when needed, for example hydrogen-powered gas turbine power plants. Residual load power plants have comparatively low investment costs, but high fuel costs.
Base-load power plants could still be integrated into this system. Technologies considered in the study include nuclear power plants, gas and steam combined cycle plants with carbon capture, geothermal energy for electricity generation, and nuclear fusion plants. Of these, gas-fired power plants are viewed as the most viable for large-scale implementation over the next 20 years. However, challenges include the need to develop carbon capture infrastructure, maintain parallel gas and hydrogen systems, and offset emissions from existing gas extraction and plant operations. Even without base-load power plants, experts are confident that supply security can be maintained.
No cost reduction
All types of base-load power plants share common characteristics: they provide continuous electricity but require high investment costs, making constant operation essential for profitability. Their primary role in the future energy system would be to supply electrolysers with surplus electricity, thereby reducing hydrogen import needs.
However, based on current cost trends, ESYS experts do not anticipate that base-load power plants will lower overall energy supply costs. “For base-load power plants to significantly reduce costs, their expenses would need to drop far below current projections,” says Karen Pittel, Director of the ifo Institute and Vice Chair of the ESYS Board of Directors. “In fact, we estimate that the risks of cost overruns and delays for base-load technologies are higher than those for expanding solar and wind energy.”
www.energiesysteme-zukunft.de
Source: 50,2 Magazine for smart grids